Since entering June, the trend of RMB depreciation is obvious, and the fluctuation range has also leveled off. It is good chance for Pcb Screw Terminal Block, pin and socket connectors and reflector electroform field.
In addition, in terms of foreign exchange use, China's export and trade surplus data in May was lower than expected, rising commodity prices led to a sharp rise in imports year on year, and the increase of import foreign exchange payment on the supply and demand of foreign exchange and the RMB exchange rate is also gradually showing.
At the same time, the recent market is buying foreign exchange exchange is more enthusiastic. Usually from June to July, foreign investors and overseas listed companies will enter the seasonal peak of dividend payment. At present, the demand for foreign exchange purchase also brings a certain depreciation pressure on the RMB.
From the external environment, the US consumer price index (CPI) in May increased 5% year on year growth in 13 years, raising concerns about the Fed's tightening of monetary policy, the dollar index higher, the yuan may be under pressure.
The short-term liquidity of the foreign exchange market will face a major impact. Looking forward to the next stage, many analysts expect that the RMB exchange rate is difficult to walk out of the unilateral appreciation trend. With the "window" of the easing of the Federal Reserve approaching, many factors strengthened the dollar gradually, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to face downward pressure in the second half of the year.
01 Market expected differentiation on RMB exchange rate
Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has remained two-way fluctuating and generally stable, but a sustained and rapid appreciation trend appeared in April and May, which has attracted more attention. In the end of May, both onshore and offshore RMB rose to 6.35 yuan, a nearly three-year high. In the economic fundamentals have not appear too much changes, there is a rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a certain risk of overadjustment.
To this end, the regulatory authorities have stressed that "two-way fluctuations are normal", "resolutely crack down on all kinds of malicious market manipulation and malicious manufacturing of unilateral expectations", "do not bet on the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, gambling will lose for a long time", and introduced some targeted measures to stabilize and guide market expectations.
Market participants pointed out that recent important meetings and regulatory authorities have commented on the exchange rate issue for many times, and raised the reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits in financial institutions and other policy adjustment signals of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, and the market's RMB exchange rate expectations are also differentiated.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said that domestic foreign exchange authorities have withdrawn from the normal intervention in the foreign exchange market, but they will still guide market expectations through some policy tools to promote the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate.
The dollar index will not decline for the long term
Strong fiscal stimulus may accelerate the U. S. economic recovery, thus strengthening the dollar. Recently, the United States is planning and pushing for a new fiscal stimulus plan to launch a $ 6 trillion fiscal stimulus plan.
Although "will have a series of difficulties in the implementation of the fiscal stimulus plan, the optimistic expectations for the future of the US economy and the practical effect of some measures may become one of the driving forces for the periodic strengthening of the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate is difficult to get out of the appreciation trend of Pingchuan." Zhixin investment chief economist and president of the research institute Lian Ping said.
In addition, the United States and other developed countries are expected to basically achieve herd immunity in the third quarter, and PMI in Europe and the United States have hit a new high in the near future, indicating that the momentum of economic recovery is strengthening significantly, and the relative advantages of China's economic fundamentals will narrow.
Lian Ping said that for the current and future period, the US economy may outperformed the euro zone in many ways, and the dollar index may strengthen periodically. And global geopolitical risks will also phased push up dollar demand.
Tang Jianwei also stressed that the narrowing of the "growth gap" of the US economy in the second half of the year will also become an important factor in the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
He noted that the US economy could also strengthen the dollar again in the second half of the year. In addition, this year, China's economy will show the trend of "high and low", while the United States and the world may be "low and high". The narrowing of the "growth difference" of the US economy in the second half of the year will put pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Although the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise recently, it will not go out of the unilateral upward trend, but the pressure is greater.
Epidemic prevention and control factors will also become an important support for boosting the stronger dollar. Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, believes that this round of epidemic prevention and control is better than Europe. Although short-term factors such as rapid vaccination in Europe have weakened the dollar in the past two months, they can not prevent the dollar from rebound in the medium and long term, and the RMB may be close to the inflection point of depreciation.
The synchronization of China and US monetary policy may pressure the RMB exchange rate. "Once the United States raises an interest rate, it is likely that China will not follow up quickly, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States will further narrow, or it may even have a phased reverse spread, which will push the dollar stronger." "" Lian Ping said.
The 2003 RMB exchange rate faces depreciation pressure within the year
Under the current exchange rate system, the RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain two-way fluctuations. Pan Gongsheng, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at the Lujiazui Forum that there are multiple uncertainties and unstable factors in the external environment affecting the exchange rate changes. Enterprise exchange rate risk management should avoid "pro-cyclical" and "naked" behavior, do not bet on the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, gambling will lose for a long time.
Many market participants believe that in the second half of this year, the RMB exchange rate depreciation pressure is greater. In order to strengthen the management of foreign exchange liquidity of financial institutions, the People's Bank of China has raised the reserve ratio by foreign exchange deposits of financial institutions by 2 percentage points since June 15, which will freeze about $ 20 billion in foreign exchange liquidity and help tighten foreign exchange liquidity in the domestic market.
At the same time, according to the experience of previous years, June to August is the peak period of foreign exchange exchange exchange for overseas listed Chinese enterprises, and it is expected that this year may be as high as more than $ 70 billion, which will become an important factor in promoting the depreciation of the RMB in the recent period of time.
"Although China's foreign exchange administration gives up its normal intervention in the foreign exchange market, it will still guide market expectations through some policy tools to promote the two-way fluctuation characteristics of the RMB exchange rate." "" Tang Jianwei said.
Post time: Jun-17-2021