Amurka ta sanar da sanya harajin kashi 25%! Wane tasiri za ta yi wa fitar da ƙarfe da aluminum daga China?

A ranar 10 ga Fabrairu, tsohon shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya sanya hannu kan wata doka da ta sanar da sanya harajin kashi 25% kan dukkan karafa da aluminum da aka shigo da su Amurka. Trump ya ce a ranar daya cewa ba za a yi "keɓancewa ko keɓewa" ga buƙatun da suka dace ba.Masu Haɗawa na Tashar Toshe, Mai Haɗa Frc kuma Masu Nunawa Mai Kusurwoyi Mai Siffa Mai Kauri zai iya yin tasiri.

A lokacin wa'adin mulkinsa na farko, Trump ya sanya harajin kashi 25% kan ƙarfe da aka shigo da shi Amurka da kuma harajin kashi 10% kan aluminum da aka shigo da shi Amurka. Daga baya, an bai wa abokan hulɗar kasuwanci kamar Kanada, Mexico, Tarayyar Turai da Burtaniya ƙa'ida ba tare da haraji ba.

Masu sharhi kan harkokin masana'antu sun ce a wannan karon Amurka ta ƙara haraji kan kayayyaki daga ƙasashe daban-daban, kuma ba wai ta yi niyya kai tsaye ga ƙasa ɗaya ba. Wataƙila tana amfani da harajin ne don haɓaka masana'antunta na cikin gida. To, yaya wannan zai yi tasiri ga fitar da ƙarfe da aluminum da China ke yi zuwa Amurka?

Fitar da kayayyakin aluminum kai tsaye ba shi da wani kaso mai yawa, kuma ƙara haraji na iya ƙara wa masu amfani da kayayyaki na Amurka nauyi.

Dangane da karin harajin da Amurka ta yi kan kayayyakin aluminum, Wen Xianjun, tsohon mataimakin shugaban kungiyar masana'antar karafa ta China Nonferrous kuma shugaban girmamawa na kungiyar masana'antar aluminum ta Shandong, ya ce: "Kasuwar da China ke fitarwa zuwa Amurka a yanzu ta riga ta sami babban adadin haraji saboda 'hana zubar da kaya da kuma rage haraji', kuma fitar da kayayyakin aluminum zuwa Amurka karami ne. Manyan kayayyakin da abin ya shafa su ne kayayyakin aluminum. Amurka tana karbar haraji ga masu shigo da kayayyaki, kuma ya kamata masu amfani da Amurka su dauki wadannan nauyin haraji."

Daga mahangar tsarin fitar da kayayyaki daga China, yawan kayayyakin aluminum da China ke fitarwa kowace shekara ya kai kimanin tan miliyan 5 zuwa 6, wanda ya kai kashi 12.85% na yawan da ake fitarwa. A shekarar 2023, Mexico ita ce babbar hanyar fitar da kayayyakin aluminum na China, wanda ya kai kashi 9.6% na jimlar yawan kayayyakin aluminum da aka fitar. Amurka da Kanada sun kai kashi 4.6% da 3.8% bi da bi, kuma kayayyakin aluminum da aka fitar zuwa yankin cinikayya na 'yanci na Arewacin Amurka sun kai kashi 18% na jimlar yawan kayayyakin aluminum na China.

Wen Xianjun ya yi imanin cewa ci gaban masana'antar aluminum ta kasar Sin ya kamata ta ci gaba da mai da hankali kan bunkasa sabbin kasuwannin masu amfani da kayayyaki domin fitar da kayayyakin aluminum na kasar Sin. Yawan amfani da aluminum a kasar Sin galibi yana cikin gida ne, kuma manufar harajin Amurka ba ta da wani tasiri sosai ga kasuwar aluminum ta cikin gida.

Dangane da tsarin shigo da kayayyaki daga Amurka, a cewar bayanan UNComtrade, a shekarar 2023, Amurka ta shigo da jimillar tan miliyan 1.6482 na kayayyakin aluminum, daga cikinsu ta shigo da tan 420,000, tan 200,000 da tan 60,000 daga Kanada, China da Mexico bi da bi, wanda ya kai jimillar 41.7%. Tushen kayayyakin aluminum da aka shigo da su daga Amurka sun taru sosai. Kayayyakin da aka shigo da su daga manyan kasashe biyar masu shigo da kayayyaki, wato China, Mexico, Canada, Indiya da Colombia, sun kai kashi 75%, kuma kayayyakin da aka shigo da su daga China sun kai kashi 36%.

A watan Maris na 2018, Amurka ta sanya ƙarin harajin kashi 10% kan kayayyakin aluminum da aka shigo da su daga ko'ina cikin duniya bisa ga sakamakon binciken, wanda ya fara aiki a ranar 23 ga Maris. Kanada da Mexico ne kawai aka keɓe. A ƙarshen Satumba na 2024, Amurka ta ƙara ƙarin harajin kan wasu kayayyakin aluminum na China zuwa kashi 25% kuma ta sanya harajin kashi 25% kan bauxite da aka fitar daga China. Kayayyakin da aka ƙara harajin su daga kashi 7.5% zuwa kashi 25% sun yi daidai da kusan dukkan kayayyakin aluminum da ke ƙarƙashin sharuɗɗan 604-7609.

A wancan lokacin, saboda harajin da Amurka ta sanya wa kayayyakin aluminum na China, fitar da kayayyakin aluminum zuwa Amurka ya ragu da rabi. Duk da haka, jimillar adadin kayayyakin aluminum da aka shigo da su Amurka ya kasance kusan tan miliyan 2, galibi saboda shigo da kayayyakin aluminum daga wasu kasashe ya mayar da hankali kan raguwar fitar da kayayyaki daga China zuwa Amurka. Kuma kayayyakin China na iya shiga Amurka ta hanyar sake fitar da kayayyaki a Mexico da Kanada.

Li Kui, wani mai bincike kan karafa marasa ƙarfe a HuaRong Rongda Futures, ya ce: "A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, ƙarin harajin shigo da kayayyaki daga dukkan ƙasashe da Trump ya yi zai shafi fitar da kayayyaki da sake fitar da kayayyaki daga China zuwa ƙasashe kamar Mexico da Kanada kai tsaye. Duk da haka, idan aka yi la'akari da cewa a tarihi, kayayyakin aluminum na China sun fuskanci binciken hana zubar da kayayyaki da ƙasashe da yawa suka ƙaddamar, kuma ƙimar harajin hana zubar da kayayyaki da ta dace ta kama daga kusan kashi 10% zuwa 75%. Sakamakon harajin hana zubar da kayayyaki da ya shafi, fitar da kayayyakin aluminum ya riga ya ragu da kusan kashi 30% zuwa 60%. Saboda haka, a ƙarƙashin harajin kashi 25%, canjin farashin aluminum bai ƙaru sosai ba. Amma a matsakaici da dogon lokaci, zai yi wani mummunan tasiri ga cinikin fitar da kayayyaki daga aluminum na China."